Crime

Data, Vanity Metric, or Politics

Casey

— 4 min read
Data, Vanity Metric, or Politics
Opinion, Data, Rant, Receipts: Author Casey Benefield, NZ2O Data Nerd. Data Analyst. Critical Thinker

Cautionary tale of vanity metrics. Politicians can make data say almost anything. When there's polarizing and partisan hate like the classic Democrat vs Republican "cold civil war" we are in, rather than understanding, citizens lose. It is up to us as citizens to question, research, and expose the truth.

Social Influencer Culture, Leader Worship

Birmingham, Alabama, USA, is the nearest metropolitan area to me. Thus, I follow public officials, and sometimes they share politician's posts, such as Birmingham's own incredibly handsome Mayor Randall Woodfin. Women love him, but I'm a data nerd, so he annoys me.

The Claim: Less Murder Good

Mr. Woodfin's post in a nutshell, is that Birmingham's murder rate is lowest since 2014. In a vacuum, this would be cause to celebrate. However, that isn't the whole story.

Just the facts, ma'am.
--Det Sgt. Joe Friday, "Dragnet" Crime Drama TV Show, 1967

An easy tool to use in a fact check is the FBI's own Crime Data Explorer tool, which can query by police department and crime type. I did a simple query for homicide logged by Birmingham Police Dept from 2014 until now.

Note: This tool is looking not at total murders, which is certainly lower, but Birmingham's population is also lower, and declining.

As you can see below, that trend appears to be a bit less significant than Mr. Woodfin let on.

Murder Rate, 2014 to current, Birmingham Police Dept Data via FBI. Mr. Woodfin's tenure started in November 2017. It's interesting seeing the gaps in data submitted by Birmingham Police Department, to the FBI during this time. There has been changes in police chief, and votes of no confidence at a point during this time. Alabama has generally weak public records and crime reporting laws, which does not compel data to be released, as other states usually would. There is no deadline codified in law, and no mandatory reporting to ALEA (State Troopers) nor federal data officials. Famously, bodycam video in an officer-involved shooting incident in Homewood, AL this year has not been released, leaving the public to question and imagine what might have happened.

Birmingham Population Declining

I have seen many articles talking about crime, and Birmingham is not generally the first choice for residential real estate, for the same reason as Fairfield. Crime, corruption, and chaos.

Here's an ugly, but honest graph of census data and estimated population for the same period of time as our FBI data. Scale starts at 0.

If murders decreased, population did too, which has an influence. That decrease in population coincides with crime, and COVID, but a deep dive to public health data will not show the correct number of death certificates filed to make up for the decrease.

Legacy Media Influence - Control the info, control the people.

There is a certain discrepancy with politicians, the media, and what the media will accept as "fact" and report on from day to day, leading to a lack of quality information for voters to make a sound decision at the polls. This is the effect of the legacy media on controlling the information itself.

One news report 11 months ago, cited Birmingham as the 4th most dangerous US city (see below).

2024 #4 Dangerous City in the US.

Around the same time, another news affiliate cited that crime was down.
So, which is the truth?
https://www.wbrc.com/2024/12/27/overall-violent-crime-down-birmingham-2024-homicides-up/

This is why it is vital that citizens start learning the art of checking source data before making important decisions, such as who will run our community, state, and country.

Legislation

Birmingham's leaders have touted a few programs with promise of decreases in crime. It is all object based and not behavioral based, and behavioral/cultural issues is generally where violence stems from.

Understanding is key. Violence usually stems from 'disrespect,' romantic partners, domestic violence, hate, gang, robbery, and drug related shootings, those are all behavior related - not because someone "has" a gun, or a certain type of gun or other weapon. Mental illness, depression, accidents are quite low on that scale.

Reactive initiatives like the ones below seem to not work. It has been the same playbook of media PR, and make a law, for the past 20 years. Seems like a pattern.

Birmingham's Reactive Legislations/Initiatives
  1. Gun Buy Back.
  2. Glock switch ban (already banned under the NFA, it's a seer change on a Glock pistol that makes it into a machine pistol).
  3. Body cam purchases. (Which, are being shielded from public record in officer-involved incidents, selectively.)
  4. Extra police surveillance cameras and technologies (Flock AI Mass Surveillance Cameras)
    1. Info and Fact Checks on Flock's Anti-Crime Claims: https://alpr.watch/
    2. Map of Flock Cameras NEAR YOU: https://deflock.me/
    3. Flock Cameras Open (Netflix for Stalkers to track ex's): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vU1-uiUlHTo
    4. Flock Camera Abuse - False Accusation from bad AI Hit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoEQg1M92_E&t=97s
    5. Flock Not Secure: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uB0gr7Fh6lY
    6. Interview with Flock Safety:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEGFAFYrTio
    7. Flock Abused by Law Enforcement:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4M4fG2k5trk
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0X7S5vAsBDM&pp=ygUMZmxvY2sgYWJ1c2Vk
      1. *** If you don't think misuse can happen in Alabama... it isn't Flock, but a far more secured system.
        https://abc3340.com/news/local/ex-officer-faces-charges-of-computer-tampering-arrest-delayed-20-months

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